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AAA: FLORIDA GAS PRICES HOLDING STEADY; FACE UPWARD PRESSURE ………

EIA revises fuel price forecasts for 2017 and 2018

TAMPA, Fla. (July 17, 2017)  Gas prices have held relatively steady for the past two weeks, but now face upward pressure. The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded is $2.25 – 1-cent less than a week ago, 3 cents more than this time last year, according to AAA, whose data is collected from credit card swipes and direct feeds from 120,000 gas stations nationwide, in cooperation with OPIS and Wright Express.

Florida gas prices averaged $2.13 on Sunday – a half cent less than last week; 3 cents less than last year.

  • The most expensive gas price averages in Florida are in West Palm Beach-Boca Raton ($2.24), Pensacola ($2.23), and Miami ($2.22)
  • The least expensive gas price averages in Florida are in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater ($2.01), Orlando ($2.04), Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice ($2.07)

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“Gas prices could inch a little higher this week,” said Mark Jenkins, spokesman, AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Refineries are running on all cylinders, cutting into excess crude stocks. That helped push oil prices higher last week, which puts upward pressure on prices at the pump. The increase on the retail-side may only amount to as much as 5 cents by the end of the week. While this could be the start of a gradual uptick in gas prices, drivers are likely to continue saving at the pump compared to what they paid earlier this year.”

Oil Prices Reach 11-Day Highs

At the close of Friday’s formal trading session on the NYMEX, WTI was up 46 cents to settle at $46.54. The market has been trending upward slightly after EIA’s weekly report showed that last week, crude oil inventories dropped below 500 million bbl for the first time since late January. Moreover, total inventories of crude are just 4.4 million bbl more than last year, showing that the surplus is draining – albeit rather slowly.

The market will now turn its attention toward OPEC to determine if it will maintain compliance with its agreement to limit production through March 2018 and curtail rising crude production levels from member countries that are exempt from the agreement. In the meantime, drivers are still poised to reap the benefits of the crude glut and continued strong gasoline output rates from refineries.

Gasoline Demand Reaches Milestone

According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report for the week ending on July 7, gasoline demand did not hit an all-time high last week, but it did reach a “top 5” milestone at 9.786 million b/d. Demand has been consistently strong based on EIA’s measurements for this summer, and for the most part, it is keeping pace with the summer of 2016. The rolling four-week average stands at 9.711 million b/d, which is nearly identical to the average for the summer of 2016 at this time.

EIA Adjusts Fuel Forecasts

  • The Energy Information Administration revised its forecast for crude oil prices to average $49/b in 2017 and $50/b in 2018, down $2/b and $4/b from the previous forecast.
    • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and is forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA forecasts production to average 9.9 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
  • The EIA also forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.32/gal in 2017 and $2.33/gal in 2018.

Gas Price Tools for Reporters/Consumers

  • GasPrices.AAA.com – Daily national, state, and metro gas price averages.
  • AAA Mobile app – Free app that shows current prices at a gas station near you.
FUEL FUNDAMENTALS
(Based on weekly data provided by the EIA)
U.S. Crude Oil U.S. Gasoline
  • Oil prices rose $2 last week, settling at $46.54/b.
  • Supplies declined 1.5%, falling from 502.9 million barrels to 495.4 million.
  • Production increased by 0.67%. At nearly 9.4 million barrels per day, domestic oil production is the highest since mid-2015.
  • The U.S. Oil Rig count remains unchanged.
  • Wholesale prices rose 4%
  • Supplies grew by 0.68%
  • Production rose 1% nationally, and 21% in the Gulf Coast
  • Weekly demand levels remain near all-time highs after rising nearly 1% last week.

                    

                             CURRENT AND PAST PRICE AVERAGES

                                                    Regular Unleaded Gasoline

Sunday Saturday Week Ago Month Ago One Year Ago Highest Price on Record
National $2.253 $2.254 $2.263 $2.310 $2.215 $4.114 (7/17/2008)
Florida $2.134 $2.135 $2.140 $2.292 $2.161 $4.079 (7/17/2008)
Georgia $2.150 $2.146 $2.115 $2.172 $2.054 $4.164 (9/15/2008)
Tennessee $2.024 $2.024 $2.006 $2.065 $1.985 $4.118 (9/15/2008)
Click here to view current gasoline price averages

 

Gas Price Survey Methodology
AAA updates fuel price averages daily at www.GasPrices.AAA.com. Every day up to 120,000 stations are surveyed based on credit card swipes and direct feeds in cooperation with the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) and Wright Express for unmatched statistical reliability. All average retail prices in this report are for a gallon of regular, unleaded gasoline.

About The Auto Club Group
The Auto Club Group (ACG) is the second largest AAA club in North America.  ACG and its affiliates provide membership, insurance, financial services and travel offerings to over 9 million members across eleven states and two U.S. territories including Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; most of Illinois and Minnesota; and a portion of Indiana.  ACG belongs to the national AAA federation with more than 57 million members in the United States and Canada and whose mission includes protecting and advancing freedom of mobility and improving traffic safety. Motorists can map a route, identify gas prices, find discounts, book a hotel, and access AAA roadside assistance with the AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. Learn more at AAA.com/mobile. AAA clubs can be visited on the Internet at AAA.com.

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